For years the Parent/Child relationship has been used as a metaphor for the role of government both pro and con. There is a an implicit assumption that the family is a microcosm of socialism. Even the very free market F.A. Hayek believed that we act altruistically or socialistically at the family level. This inspired me to think about my children and how I maintain order at home. I am beginning to see the virtue of running my household more like a free market.
I joined Economist Bryan Caplan’s virtual book club a few weeks ago as he analyzes Murray Rothbard’s “For a New Liberty”. I have also been influenced by my friend Brian Phillips who is an Objectivist a la Ayn Rand.
Both Rothbard and Rand believe that the path to a moral society is to establish clear property rights. I’m not certain about it being moral, but if it helps me achieve my ends, then I’ll use it.
Here are my applications to toddler economics, of which I have two:
The living areas of the house are clearly a case of “Tragedy of the Commons”. That is, no one really “owns” the space so we all abuse the space, especially my boys. Therefore, the common areas must become the property of Mom and Dad. We allow the use of these areas by our boys if they follow our rules.
To encourage them not to abuse the “common areas” we have established a rule of use for the living areas and different rules for their rooms (being their property). Possession and proximity are the rules of temporary ownership for property brought into the living areas. That is, if child A leaves a toy on the couch and is now playing in the kitchen, said toy can become the temporary property of child O on possession. Permanent ownership is still conferred on the child of original ownership. In their rooms, all toys (property) are under their complete and permanent ownership. That is, if child A leaves a toy on his own bed, child O cannot take even temporary possession without explicit permission or compensation from child A. Thus, an incentive is used to maintain toys outside of the living areas.
Another minor rule for individual rooms is the right to exclusion. Child O may prevent child A from entering his room. Child O has the right to exclude child A from taking temporary possession of any property owned by child O within child O’s room.
On the subject of noise. We are all owners of our own bodies, and thus also our ears. If Child A shouts/screams this is a violation of property rights. He has caused me pain without compensation or permission. Therefore, shouting is only allowed outside and within their rooms with the door closed. At night, shouting violates the rights of the other child who is trying to go to sleep. This again is a violation of property rights.
And finally, to running and throwing objects in the house. The objects within the living areas of the house are the possessions of Mom and Dad (mostly Mom). To subject our property to risk of destruction without permission or compensation is a violation of our property rights. Because there is an objective probability that our property may be broken, throwing balls and running in the house are forbidden.
Any other thoughts? It’s actually pretty cool how this is working out.
Showing posts with label humor. Show all posts
Showing posts with label humor. Show all posts
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
The Liquidity Trap, I’m a Believer
Paul Krugman, the influential Sith Lord columnist has finally convinced me that America is indeed in a Liquidity Trap. However, I have to add a few tweaks and variables to his thinking.
The traditional “Liquidity Trap” is as follows: Financial meltdown scares the public into saving money and not spending. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. Companies begin to shed workers because of this fall in demand. More unemployed people spend less and discourage other consumers even more. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. The cycle repeats.
Here is my “Liquidity Trap” as follows: Financial meltdown scares the public into saving money and not spending. The government does something reckless and foolish like a bank bailout, hurting future expectations of economic growth and recovery, which kills stock prices. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. Aggregate demand begins to recover, and then the government does something reckless and foolish like a stimulus. Stocks fall, demand drops, inflation retreats. Recovery begins and then the government does something reckless and foolish like announcing a vague new bailout plan. Stocks fall, demand drops, inflation retreats.
Here’s the cycle more clearly in 6 easy steps:
1. Bank panic
2. Stocks crash
3. Government Panics and Screws Things Up
4. Stocks tank again, treasuries surge, inflation falls
5. Stocks begin to recover, treasuries decline, inflation starts to pick up
6. Return to step 3.
I had believed massive inflation was inevitable because the Federal Reserve is cranking out the dough like Pillsbury, but apparently, all the government has to do is slowly but surely destroy the economy to head this off. It's amazing how closely the data fits my new model. Hopefully Obama’s cabinet doesn’t run out of bad ideas anytime soon, or we’re all screwed.
The traditional “Liquidity Trap” is as follows: Financial meltdown scares the public into saving money and not spending. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. Companies begin to shed workers because of this fall in demand. More unemployed people spend less and discourage other consumers even more. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. The cycle repeats.
Here is my “Liquidity Trap” as follows: Financial meltdown scares the public into saving money and not spending. The government does something reckless and foolish like a bank bailout, hurting future expectations of economic growth and recovery, which kills stock prices. Aggregate demand then falls, lowering prices. Aggregate demand begins to recover, and then the government does something reckless and foolish like a stimulus. Stocks fall, demand drops, inflation retreats. Recovery begins and then the government does something reckless and foolish like announcing a vague new bailout plan. Stocks fall, demand drops, inflation retreats.
Here’s the cycle more clearly in 6 easy steps:
1. Bank panic
2. Stocks crash
3. Government Panics and Screws Things Up
4. Stocks tank again, treasuries surge, inflation falls
5. Stocks begin to recover, treasuries decline, inflation starts to pick up
6. Return to step 3.
I had believed massive inflation was inevitable because the Federal Reserve is cranking out the dough like Pillsbury, but apparently, all the government has to do is slowly but surely destroy the economy to head this off. It's amazing how closely the data fits my new model. Hopefully Obama’s cabinet doesn’t run out of bad ideas anytime soon, or we’re all screwed.
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Glenn Beck - Best Political Rant in Years
This video was linked by Drudgereport, so many of you might have seen it. It is easily the funniest political rant I have seen in a long time, if not ever. Nothing warms that heart more than seeing Barack Obama's agenda correctly called Socialist.
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
I Have a Man-Crush
According to this story with The State, a South Carolina newspaper, (HT: Club for Growth), the governor of that state, Mark Sanford, wants to do the following:
1. Eliminate state Corporate Income Tax
2. Pay for it by eliminating Corporate Welfare tax breaks for politically desireable industries.
3. Switch the codified state income tax for a Flat Tax
Isn't he just dreamy. Maybe my wife would let me put his poster on the closet door.
Friday, November 14, 2008
A Vocabulary Question
A little light-hearted question for a Friday.
With a friend here at work, I was trying to come up with a word that describes a particular emotion. It's that horrible sick feeling that occurs right after schadenfreude goes awry.
A hypothetical:
Let's say you hate a particular football team, and especially their quarterback. This team is well on its way to a spectacular season. However, through some great cosmic fortune they are losing to a team that they are supposed to beat handily. Time on the clock is down to 30 seconds, your nemesis is down by 4 points, and he just got obliterated by a sack at his own 15 yard line, forcing a 3rd and 18. Thus the schadenfreude.
Here you are, simply ebullient at the misfortune applied to the object of your wrath. You are reveling in exaltation of his and their defeat.
Then on the next play, this quarterback steps back to pass and heaves it down field. The camera pans along with the ball, revealing, much to your horror, that a receiver is somehow 10 yards past his defender. The ball lays itself perfectly over his shoulder hitting him in stride as he races into the end-zone. This is usually followed a very loud expletive.
Does anyone have a good word for that feeling?
Monday, November 3, 2008
On a Totally Unrelated Note
Because election day will be consumed by politics out the whazoo I wanted to write about a very important topic that provided some heated debate at my office yesterday.
Do football referees have a cognitive bias towards media darlings?
To preface, I graduated from Texas A&M, and I have been an Aggie football fan ever since I was a little kid. This past Saturday night, ABC Sports showed the match up between two of my school’s archrivals: Texas Tech and the University of Texas. It’s a toss up which of these two teams we are supposed to hate more than the other each year. While Texas Tech won the game with some late game heroics, I felt that it was obvious that the calls heavily favored the Longhorns of the University of Texas.
For several years now, the Longhorns have consistently benefited from poor refereeing. However, I do not believe that there is any kind of conspiracy; I simply believe that all schools that have a recent history of being very good or happen to be media darlings receive better treatment by referees. Were I to watch a large number of games by USC or some other powerhouse I would expect to feel the same way. Furthermore, I do not believe that referees during the game are aware that they have a bias. There is simply a cognitive difficulty in seeing the game as it truly is when there is a preconceived notion of who is “supposed to win” the game.
In the NBA, it is generally accepted that star athletes get the benefit of the doubt and receive fewer penalties and their opponents are called for more penalties than reality would dictate. Players with bad reputations, such as Dennis Rodman and Ron Artest, often suffer more penalties than they ought to as well. I do not think this bias is intentional, it just simply is a product of preconceived notions. I see no reason why this same bias would not be extended to whole teams and other sports.
Having said that, I do not believe that this is simply an unpleasant fact that must be accepted. When I was young, I was your typical fan who always saw my own team as the one getting the short end of the stick. As an adult, I don’t see it that way. It has actually been quite some time since I have seen my team, the Texas A&M Aggies, face a significant number of bad calls.
My officemates, who just happen to be Longhorn fans, claim that my analysis is based on my bias against their team. But, in my defense, the only other team that I have accused of consistently receiving favorable refereeing was the Utah Jazz. When I finally met a Jazz fan in college from Salt Lake City and confronted him with my accusations that John Stockton built a career on the “moving pick” and roll, he laughed and said that he totally agreed with me.
Do football referees have a cognitive bias towards media darlings?
To preface, I graduated from Texas A&M, and I have been an Aggie football fan ever since I was a little kid. This past Saturday night, ABC Sports showed the match up between two of my school’s archrivals: Texas Tech and the University of Texas. It’s a toss up which of these two teams we are supposed to hate more than the other each year. While Texas Tech won the game with some late game heroics, I felt that it was obvious that the calls heavily favored the Longhorns of the University of Texas.
For several years now, the Longhorns have consistently benefited from poor refereeing. However, I do not believe that there is any kind of conspiracy; I simply believe that all schools that have a recent history of being very good or happen to be media darlings receive better treatment by referees. Were I to watch a large number of games by USC or some other powerhouse I would expect to feel the same way. Furthermore, I do not believe that referees during the game are aware that they have a bias. There is simply a cognitive difficulty in seeing the game as it truly is when there is a preconceived notion of who is “supposed to win” the game.
In the NBA, it is generally accepted that star athletes get the benefit of the doubt and receive fewer penalties and their opponents are called for more penalties than reality would dictate. Players with bad reputations, such as Dennis Rodman and Ron Artest, often suffer more penalties than they ought to as well. I do not think this bias is intentional, it just simply is a product of preconceived notions. I see no reason why this same bias would not be extended to whole teams and other sports.
Having said that, I do not believe that this is simply an unpleasant fact that must be accepted. When I was young, I was your typical fan who always saw my own team as the one getting the short end of the stick. As an adult, I don’t see it that way. It has actually been quite some time since I have seen my team, the Texas A&M Aggies, face a significant number of bad calls.
My officemates, who just happen to be Longhorn fans, claim that my analysis is based on my bias against their team. But, in my defense, the only other team that I have accused of consistently receiving favorable refereeing was the Utah Jazz. When I finally met a Jazz fan in college from Salt Lake City and confronted him with my accusations that John Stockton built a career on the “moving pick” and roll, he laughed and said that he totally agreed with me.
Friday, October 24, 2008
Katy Freeway Needs a Bailout – Fast!
A little levity for today. If you’re not from Houston, the Katy Freeway (I-10) is home to major operational centers for Exxon, Chevron, Conoco and Royal Dutch Shell, amongst many other smaller firms.
From Kansas to Qatar, investors are pulling their money out of oil until they know how low oil prices will really go. The market is plunging as oil prices have fallen by over 50% in the last few months. If the government doesn’t act soon, this crisis will spread from the Katy Freeway to Main Street. Oil companies are quickly finding that no one wants to buy their oil at its true value.
There are already unsubstantiated rumors of some highly leveraged oil speculators shutting down production. The panic setting in on the Katy Freeway is spreading. Although, only two oil companies have declared bankruptcy so far this year for seemingly unrelated reasons, experts believe that dozens of oil companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. The fear gripping the market right now could lead oil companies simply to halt drilling and production until the bottom is reached.
The U.S. Energy Secretary has announced an $800 Billion plan to purchase oil wells around the country, and possibly outside of the United States, to drive up prices and get oil companies drilling again. The Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke argued before Congress that the American taxpayer would not be left holding the bag, as they have already agreed to debase the value of the dollar to drive up oil prices and make a killing.
Ample evidence abounds that the “Energy Crunch” is spreading from the Katy Freeway to Main Street. Power outages from the shortage of oil have been widespread. Jim Boone, of Louisville, Kentucky, reports no power for up to three hours yesterday at his Burger Barn restaurant saying, “Power just isn’t available anywhere.” The fear on Main Street is just as palpable as it is on the Katy Freeway.
Many experts believe that if the government doesn’t marshal a plan to rescue the price of oil, we could see mass shortages soon. Bob Samuelson, President and Chief Strategist of BS Investments comments, “Prices at the pump may fall under $2, but there won’t be any gas to be had. It’s simple economics.” He also adds, “Some investors may want to consider melting down their cars to build bicycles to weather the current crisis.” However, Warren Buffet has tried to reassure Americans in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal that, “In the long run, the automobile will get you where you need to go at a much faster pace than a bicycle.” Warren Buffet in another interview for CNBC reiterated this point by revealing plans to buy a grossly underpriced late model Buick he saw on Craigslist over the weekend.
Tonight, the President will deliver a speech to the American people to reassure them that the government will be able to solve this crisis.
From Kansas to Qatar, investors are pulling their money out of oil until they know how low oil prices will really go. The market is plunging as oil prices have fallen by over 50% in the last few months. If the government doesn’t act soon, this crisis will spread from the Katy Freeway to Main Street. Oil companies are quickly finding that no one wants to buy their oil at its true value.
There are already unsubstantiated rumors of some highly leveraged oil speculators shutting down production. The panic setting in on the Katy Freeway is spreading. Although, only two oil companies have declared bankruptcy so far this year for seemingly unrelated reasons, experts believe that dozens of oil companies are on the brink of bankruptcy. The fear gripping the market right now could lead oil companies simply to halt drilling and production until the bottom is reached.
The U.S. Energy Secretary has announced an $800 Billion plan to purchase oil wells around the country, and possibly outside of the United States, to drive up prices and get oil companies drilling again. The Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke argued before Congress that the American taxpayer would not be left holding the bag, as they have already agreed to debase the value of the dollar to drive up oil prices and make a killing.
Ample evidence abounds that the “Energy Crunch” is spreading from the Katy Freeway to Main Street. Power outages from the shortage of oil have been widespread. Jim Boone, of Louisville, Kentucky, reports no power for up to three hours yesterday at his Burger Barn restaurant saying, “Power just isn’t available anywhere.” The fear on Main Street is just as palpable as it is on the Katy Freeway.
Many experts believe that if the government doesn’t marshal a plan to rescue the price of oil, we could see mass shortages soon. Bob Samuelson, President and Chief Strategist of BS Investments comments, “Prices at the pump may fall under $2, but there won’t be any gas to be had. It’s simple economics.” He also adds, “Some investors may want to consider melting down their cars to build bicycles to weather the current crisis.” However, Warren Buffet has tried to reassure Americans in an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal that, “In the long run, the automobile will get you where you need to go at a much faster pace than a bicycle.” Warren Buffet in another interview for CNBC reiterated this point by revealing plans to buy a grossly underpriced late model Buick he saw on Craigslist over the weekend.
Tonight, the President will deliver a speech to the American people to reassure them that the government will be able to solve this crisis.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Report from the International Oil Price Fixing Convention
This past week the 41st annual International Oil Price Fixing Convention was held in Houston. While in the past it has been located at an undisclosed location within the underground convention center complex in Geneva, Switzerland, the price of airfares became prohibitive. Because every major oil company in the U.S. and Western Europe has major operations in Houston, it seemed only appropriate to host it within easy driving distances of most of the attendees. The price was steep, but I was able to negotiate a pro-rated price with Sherry, the receptionist, since I was only going to attend the Saturday portion of the convention.
The first presentation was from the Italian economist Giovanni Illuminati who gave a devastating epistemological deconstruction of theories posited by Nobel Laureate John Forbes Nash and the accepted solution to Prisoner’s Dilemma. He revealed that, in fact, a long-term international cabal to manipulate prices was not only feasible, but because class determines one’s form of logic, massive conspiracies are inevitable.
The second presentation was from the Disinformation Section President. One of the more impressive accomplishments of this group was their ability to hack into California Congresswoman Maxine Waters’ word-a-day e-mail subscription and remove the word “Nationalize”. The direct effect of these efforts can be seen in this video here
Text from the video:
Waters responded, in part, "And guess what this liberal would be all about. This liberal will be about socializing … uh, um. …"
The congresswoman paused to collect her thoughts.
"Would be about, basically, taking over, and the government running all of your companies. …"
The Disinformation Section President also clued us in on Operation Truth in Plain Sight. Because Rep. Ron Paul’s candidacy for President has led him to be much more visible, and being the only person in Congress who understands that the weak dollar is a main driver of oil prices, he needed to be marginalized. The organization has funneled well over $1.2 million dollars of campaign donations from a laundry list of cranks and crackpots. They have also fed news stories to dim journalists to create a heuristic halo of crazy around the good Congressman from Texas. The Section President extended his thanks to the good people of the Wall Street Banking conspiracy for their assistance in these efforts.
During the question and answer session, a young gentleman asked some questions on how U.S. companies can continue to maintain a worldwide collusion over the price of oil. The Section President answered that through the assistance of consultants from TMZ and People Magazine we have been able to blackmail a number of world leaders to toe the line. Apparently, Vladmir Putin has an obsession with Rocky IV, Red Dawn, and Molly Ringwald, which would not bode well for his nationalistic credentials. As for a number of Arab Sheiks, what happens in Dubai, unlike Vegas, does not stay in Dubai. The student then pressed for any new hopes of controlling Hugo Chavez’s behavior. The Section President stated relations have remained tense with him for some time. Some progress was thought possible after Big Oil convinced the Houston Rockets to return their colors to Chavez’s favorite red. (Hugo was in agreement with many local fans that the unsightly navy blue uniforms cost them at least two championships.) However, he considered the Chinese influence on the logo font was in his words, “A slap in the face to the people of Venezuela.”
The next speaker of the Saturday convention meetings was Jim Kazlinsky. Around two years ago, ExxonMobil’s CEO and Convention Chair Rex Tillerson was surfing the internet only to stumble upon a banner ad that guaranteed a 78% return over 9-months. Eventually he was able to track down Mr. Kazlinsky and his former college roommate who had set up E-trade and Forex accounts on their home computers after finally passing their Series 6 exams. Both men had apparently won several stock picking contests amongst their friends in college. Mr. Kazlinsky, through the aid of several charts and some pretty sweet youtube videos explained to us that Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis was totally wrong. One chart revealed that oil prices had been going up for several years now and that if we had only bought a series of call options we could have made a profit of no less than 3500%. It was through his iconoclastic presentation two years ago that the Exorbitant Profits Council was able to spread the word that speculation in the market was a guarantee of profits and also a way to lift oil prices into the stratosphere. Mr. Kazlinsky continued his presentation by comparing the rise in the price of oil to the beanie baby bubble of the mid 1990s. Using a highly technical linear approximation technique he referred to as “eye-balling” we can predict that oil prices will plunge beginning late this year.
After Mr. Kazlinsky left the stage, Chairperson Tillerson had some ominous accusations as well. Someone, possibly in the room at that moment, had leaked information on oil price speculation to the Daily Kos website. What had been a highly profitable, low cost collusion had now prompted Congressional hearings and significant patronage would now have to be paid.
The last presentation of the evening was a forward look into the future. The Propaganda Section had already created a number of videos of “Average Americans” who had been wiped out by investing their hard earn money in oil futures and under cut by evil short sellers. A draft bailout of oil future investors hurt by the oil bust has been drafted. It was their expectation that no less than 90% of the bailout money would go to corporations secretly owned by Big Oil.
After the presentations, we had a great dinner. The party lasted well into the night. Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO Jeroen van der Veer got a little soused and forced a clearly uncomfortable James Mulva (ConocoPhillips) up on stage to sing a few Hank Williams karaoke songs. Till next year.
The first presentation was from the Italian economist Giovanni Illuminati who gave a devastating epistemological deconstruction of theories posited by Nobel Laureate John Forbes Nash and the accepted solution to Prisoner’s Dilemma. He revealed that, in fact, a long-term international cabal to manipulate prices was not only feasible, but because class determines one’s form of logic, massive conspiracies are inevitable.
The second presentation was from the Disinformation Section President. One of the more impressive accomplishments of this group was their ability to hack into California Congresswoman Maxine Waters’ word-a-day e-mail subscription and remove the word “Nationalize”. The direct effect of these efforts can be seen in this video here
Text from the video:
Waters responded, in part, "And guess what this liberal would be all about. This liberal will be about socializing … uh, um. …"
The congresswoman paused to collect her thoughts.
"Would be about, basically, taking over, and the government running all of your companies. …"
The Disinformation Section President also clued us in on Operation Truth in Plain Sight. Because Rep. Ron Paul’s candidacy for President has led him to be much more visible, and being the only person in Congress who understands that the weak dollar is a main driver of oil prices, he needed to be marginalized. The organization has funneled well over $1.2 million dollars of campaign donations from a laundry list of cranks and crackpots. They have also fed news stories to dim journalists to create a heuristic halo of crazy around the good Congressman from Texas. The Section President extended his thanks to the good people of the Wall Street Banking conspiracy for their assistance in these efforts.
During the question and answer session, a young gentleman asked some questions on how U.S. companies can continue to maintain a worldwide collusion over the price of oil. The Section President answered that through the assistance of consultants from TMZ and People Magazine we have been able to blackmail a number of world leaders to toe the line. Apparently, Vladmir Putin has an obsession with Rocky IV, Red Dawn, and Molly Ringwald, which would not bode well for his nationalistic credentials. As for a number of Arab Sheiks, what happens in Dubai, unlike Vegas, does not stay in Dubai. The student then pressed for any new hopes of controlling Hugo Chavez’s behavior. The Section President stated relations have remained tense with him for some time. Some progress was thought possible after Big Oil convinced the Houston Rockets to return their colors to Chavez’s favorite red. (Hugo was in agreement with many local fans that the unsightly navy blue uniforms cost them at least two championships.) However, he considered the Chinese influence on the logo font was in his words, “A slap in the face to the people of Venezuela.”
The next speaker of the Saturday convention meetings was Jim Kazlinsky. Around two years ago, ExxonMobil’s CEO and Convention Chair Rex Tillerson was surfing the internet only to stumble upon a banner ad that guaranteed a 78% return over 9-months. Eventually he was able to track down Mr. Kazlinsky and his former college roommate who had set up E-trade and Forex accounts on their home computers after finally passing their Series 6 exams. Both men had apparently won several stock picking contests amongst their friends in college. Mr. Kazlinsky, through the aid of several charts and some pretty sweet youtube videos explained to us that Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis was totally wrong. One chart revealed that oil prices had been going up for several years now and that if we had only bought a series of call options we could have made a profit of no less than 3500%. It was through his iconoclastic presentation two years ago that the Exorbitant Profits Council was able to spread the word that speculation in the market was a guarantee of profits and also a way to lift oil prices into the stratosphere. Mr. Kazlinsky continued his presentation by comparing the rise in the price of oil to the beanie baby bubble of the mid 1990s. Using a highly technical linear approximation technique he referred to as “eye-balling” we can predict that oil prices will plunge beginning late this year.
After Mr. Kazlinsky left the stage, Chairperson Tillerson had some ominous accusations as well. Someone, possibly in the room at that moment, had leaked information on oil price speculation to the Daily Kos website. What had been a highly profitable, low cost collusion had now prompted Congressional hearings and significant patronage would now have to be paid.
The last presentation of the evening was a forward look into the future. The Propaganda Section had already created a number of videos of “Average Americans” who had been wiped out by investing their hard earn money in oil futures and under cut by evil short sellers. A draft bailout of oil future investors hurt by the oil bust has been drafted. It was their expectation that no less than 90% of the bailout money would go to corporations secretly owned by Big Oil.
After the presentations, we had a great dinner. The party lasted well into the night. Royal Dutch Shell’s CEO Jeroen van der Veer got a little soused and forced a clearly uncomfortable James Mulva (ConocoPhillips) up on stage to sing a few Hank Williams karaoke songs. Till next year.
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