Having concluded that language is the expression and communication of emotion, the total sphere of communication needs to be added to complete this discussion. Verbal (oral and written) communication is only one of the ways that we communicate our emotions. The two other major forms are through music and aesthetics.
Certain music conjures up very similar emotional experiences in us. An ominous song comes across as such to most listeners. Whether there is some objective trait or subjectively created cultural understanding in music that makes it sound dark and ominous we seem to understand the intent for the most part. We match happy lyrics with happy tunes, and angry lyrics to angry tunes. Music is an additional layer of emotional communication. In Celine Dion’s “My Heart Will Go On”, the feelings of longing are significantly heightened by the melody of the music. We like those sounds that resonate with our own feelings and emotions. We like love songs, we like soaring anthems, but we can’t stand a tune that doesn’t match our emotional experiences (She thinks my tractor’s sexy, ugh).
The same goes for aesthetics. An American flag conjures up much more emotion in the patriotic individual than another piece of colored cloth. The image means something more. It is a communication of ideas, and it conjures a whole litany of emotions and memories. A swastika can cause repulsion. A rose can fill us with romance. We have learned that certain images mean more than the photons hitting our retina.
Neither language, music, or aesthetics is rational. It’s all emotional.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
A Series on Rational Thought - Part I
In this series I want to display how rational thought is a mirage. How we actually make decisions in mostly rational ways, but not truly. What we believe is decided by those ideas that most fit our emotional needs.
First, let me explore language itself. A baby’s first words usually correlate to its most pressing needs. “Mama”, “Dada” or “my”. It learns to communicate its emotion by use of these first simple words. If it experiences desire for an object, the child says, “my.” If it experiences desire for physical comfort, the child says, “mama.” A child first learns to express themselves, and slowly learns words to describe the emotions they are experiencing.
Later on, the child begins to cross another threshold of language. Children have to learn that other people have emotions and respect those emotions. A child wants a toy and asks, “Can I play with your toy?” In this, the child expresses their own emotion, but they are also communicating to the other child that they realize that the other child may have an emotional attachment to that object (toy) as well. Realizing that the asking child recognizes that the owning child does in deed “own” the object and that the object will be returned allows the owning child to share with more comfort and addresses its emotional connection to the toy.
Of course, children will also learn less admirable uses of language. They will learn how to say things to manipulate and to emotionally injure those around them to achieve their own ends. They recognize the emotional needs of others and exploit that knowledge.
In total, all language is the expression and communication of emotion.
First, let me explore language itself. A baby’s first words usually correlate to its most pressing needs. “Mama”, “Dada” or “my”. It learns to communicate its emotion by use of these first simple words. If it experiences desire for an object, the child says, “my.” If it experiences desire for physical comfort, the child says, “mama.” A child first learns to express themselves, and slowly learns words to describe the emotions they are experiencing.
Later on, the child begins to cross another threshold of language. Children have to learn that other people have emotions and respect those emotions. A child wants a toy and asks, “Can I play with your toy?” In this, the child expresses their own emotion, but they are also communicating to the other child that they realize that the other child may have an emotional attachment to that object (toy) as well. Realizing that the asking child recognizes that the owning child does in deed “own” the object and that the object will be returned allows the owning child to share with more comfort and addresses its emotional connection to the toy.
Of course, children will also learn less admirable uses of language. They will learn how to say things to manipulate and to emotionally injure those around them to achieve their own ends. They recognize the emotional needs of others and exploit that knowledge.
In total, all language is the expression and communication of emotion.
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Why I Don't Believe in the Recovery
I was quite surprised last month by the announcement that 290K jobs had been added over the last month. The number is a little sketchy given that 66K were temporary census hires, but 224K is still a very solid number. The problem I have with this number is two fold.
1) The ADP employment number usually tracks well with the BLS report. Scott Grannis has a nice chart:
1) The ADP employment number usually tracks well with the BLS report. Scott Grannis has a nice chart:
Strangely, though, the gap last month between the BLS and the ADP grew wider than anything visible in this chart (last month is not shown). ADP showed 32K jobs, and the BLS showed 290K. That's a 260K gap.
2) The weekly initial jobless claims numbers just aren't revealing much growth. During the last few years before this recession, weekly initial jobless claims ran in the 300-340K range. Now, we are hovering in the 460K range. We need a 140K average drop to be at a "normal" rate of layoffs. Chart from Bloomberg below.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
Obama's Poll Numbers Tanking Again
When the poll analysts for the Democrats claimed that passing the Health Care expansion would help them in November I thought they were crazy. Well, I was wrong, and they were mostly wrong. Right after the Health bill passed, support amongst Democrats increased. Support amongst Republicans went nowhere. However, that boost that Obama received for a few weeks seems to have evaporated in recent days. The Rasmussen Presidential Index shows a rapidly widening gap between strongly disapprove and strongly approve. My guess for the drop off in strong support is due in part to both the BP oil fiasco in the Gulf of Mexico and the turbelent economic conditions of the last couple weeks.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Funny Math with Unemployment
Weekly initial jobless claims came out this morning. According to the title of Foxnews article: on May 13th:
Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 4,000 to 444,000
Interestingly enough, I found another Foxnews article issued on May 6th detailing last week's initial jobless claims with this title:
New Weekly Jobless Claims drop 7,000 to 444,000
This is not a misprint. Foxnews has the numbers right as reported by the government.
Given this math, I want to make a bold prediction. Jobless claims will continue to drop throughout the year, and could reach as low as 444,000 by Christmas.
Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 4,000 to 444,000
Interestingly enough, I found another Foxnews article issued on May 6th detailing last week's initial jobless claims with this title:
New Weekly Jobless Claims drop 7,000 to 444,000
This is not a misprint. Foxnews has the numbers right as reported by the government.
Given this math, I want to make a bold prediction. Jobless claims will continue to drop throughout the year, and could reach as low as 444,000 by Christmas.
Wednesday, May 12, 2010
California is a Worse Credit Risk than Iraq
According to CMA Datavision today:
California's Cumulative Probability of Default now surpasses Iraq's. You know, that country with questionable elections and frequent mass fatality bombings.
California's Cumulative Probability of Default now surpasses Iraq's. You know, that country with questionable elections and frequent mass fatality bombings.
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Following the Greek Crisis
Here are a few links to help you follow the Greek Crisis:
To see what the market thinks of Greece's ability to pay back it's loans, you can use the change in interest rates on Greek governments bonds. If you look at the chart, it's bad news. All from Bloomberg:
Two-year bonds
Five-year bonds
Ten-year bonds
To check on "contagion", the only free site that I have found that follows government bonds worldwide is CMA Datavision. At this link there are three lists. The 1st list is comprised of countries with the highest probability of default. The 2nd group is comprised of countries whose CDS spread (a measure of the probability of default and bankruptcy) are shrinking. This is good for those countries. The 3rd group is comporised of countries whose CDS spreads are increasing. This is bad. Unfortunately, it doesn't give history or list every country every time it is updated (I think twice a day).
CMA Datavision, Sovereign Debt Credit Spreads
Bloomberg lists the rates for a few major countries around the world, but it leaves much to be desired. That link is here:
Gilts, Bunds, and other Government Bond rates
To see the effects in the United States, you can check out a few links as well. The market price of risk is the VIX. Traditionally, the VIX runs about 15-20 in a calm market. On Friday, May 7th, the VIX hit 40, which is not good. It hit 80 back in the 2008 panic. It will soar during a market panic, and is a good indicator as to the nervousness of professional traders.
VIX
To see if American banks might be in trouble you can check out the TED spread. This is a measure of the credit risk seen within American banks. If banks are going to melt down this measure will spike. It was running in the teens and has now jumped to 30 bps. During the last market panic this number his 300, I think, so don't sweat this little jump too much just yet.
TED Spread
For the economy as a whole, I love Consumer Metrics Institute. They measure internet purchases, which seem to have an uncanny ability to predict future GDP reports. Right now, their data suggests a double dip recession. The 2Q GDP report (out August ~25th) may show negative growth.
Consumer Metrics Institute
That's all for now. If anyone has any good links or a request for a link, let me know. I have a few more, but I suspect that none of you would want to get that deep into the data.
To see what the market thinks of Greece's ability to pay back it's loans, you can use the change in interest rates on Greek governments bonds. If you look at the chart, it's bad news. All from Bloomberg:
Two-year bonds
Five-year bonds
Ten-year bonds
To check on "contagion", the only free site that I have found that follows government bonds worldwide is CMA Datavision. At this link there are three lists. The 1st list is comprised of countries with the highest probability of default. The 2nd group is comprised of countries whose CDS spread (a measure of the probability of default and bankruptcy) are shrinking. This is good for those countries. The 3rd group is comporised of countries whose CDS spreads are increasing. This is bad. Unfortunately, it doesn't give history or list every country every time it is updated (I think twice a day).
CMA Datavision, Sovereign Debt Credit Spreads
Bloomberg lists the rates for a few major countries around the world, but it leaves much to be desired. That link is here:
Gilts, Bunds, and other Government Bond rates
To see the effects in the United States, you can check out a few links as well. The market price of risk is the VIX. Traditionally, the VIX runs about 15-20 in a calm market. On Friday, May 7th, the VIX hit 40, which is not good. It hit 80 back in the 2008 panic. It will soar during a market panic, and is a good indicator as to the nervousness of professional traders.
VIX
To see if American banks might be in trouble you can check out the TED spread. This is a measure of the credit risk seen within American banks. If banks are going to melt down this measure will spike. It was running in the teens and has now jumped to 30 bps. During the last market panic this number his 300, I think, so don't sweat this little jump too much just yet.
TED Spread
For the economy as a whole, I love Consumer Metrics Institute. They measure internet purchases, which seem to have an uncanny ability to predict future GDP reports. Right now, their data suggests a double dip recession. The 2Q GDP report (out August ~25th) may show negative growth.
Consumer Metrics Institute
That's all for now. If anyone has any good links or a request for a link, let me know. I have a few more, but I suspect that none of you would want to get that deep into the data.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
I'm Psychic
Back in March of 2009 I said:
U.S. Govt Crowding Out International Borrowing
A while back I brought up the idea that the U.S. government was borrowing so much money that some other governments might begin to have trouble borrowing for their own purposes. The world has a finite amount of cheap capital, and with the amount of money that our government and several others are...borrowing to prop up financial firms and wager on Keynesian stimulus that the supply of those funds might dry up.
Now, the credit spreads for numerous European countries are widening. The world is running out of money.
U.S. Govt Crowding Out International Borrowing
A while back I brought up the idea that the U.S. government was borrowing so much money that some other governments might begin to have trouble borrowing for their own purposes. The world has a finite amount of cheap capital, and with the amount of money that our government and several others are...borrowing to prop up financial firms and wager on Keynesian stimulus that the supply of those funds might dry up.
Now, the credit spreads for numerous European countries are widening. The world is running out of money.
Monday, April 5, 2010
Best Column Yet Written on Obama
Victor Davis Hanson of Pajamas Media nails it. Titled the Postmodern Presidency
It's brilliant. No snippets. Every paragraph is worth the time.
It's brilliant. No snippets. Every paragraph is worth the time.
Monday, March 22, 2010
Is the U.S. Slowly Going Bankrupt?
At bloomberg today:
The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama.
Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.
If you know anything about financial mathematics, this really screw things up. Many calculations are based on the underlying premise that the risk free rate is the U.S. Treasury rate. By definition corporate bond rates are higher than Treasuries.
What is actually happening is that people no longer believe that the default risk for U.S. bonds is zero. We are seen by the market increasingly as a credit risk.
If/when the "Obamacare" Health Bill becomes law, tack on another $500B in deficits over the next ten years. The Medicare cuts alleged in the bill are politically unfeasible and will never happen. One more heap of straw on the camel's back.
The bond market is saying that it’s safer to lend to Warren Buffett than Barack Obama.
Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.
If you know anything about financial mathematics, this really screw things up. Many calculations are based on the underlying premise that the risk free rate is the U.S. Treasury rate. By definition corporate bond rates are higher than Treasuries.
What is actually happening is that people no longer believe that the default risk for U.S. bonds is zero. We are seen by the market increasingly as a credit risk.
If/when the "Obamacare" Health Bill becomes law, tack on another $500B in deficits over the next ten years. The Medicare cuts alleged in the bill are politically unfeasible and will never happen. One more heap of straw on the camel's back.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Status and Esteem, Old Enemies
In this post, I mentioned the link between status and depression. That is, low status leads to depression. After observing my own feelings, watching films, and watching other people, this link seems very strong and very common. I had a brief e-mail exchange with Alvin Plantinga, a noted Christian philosopher at Notre Dame. After his responses I fleshed out some of my thinking on this subject.
There is a dichotomy to status in regards to relationships. One side is power and the other I call esteem. A perfect power relationship would be sociopathic, having no value in the person, only in what the person can do for them. A perfect esteem relationship, would be one of perfect love, where the object is valued without regard to the power the relationship affords. Neither exists for man in a pure form, only in tendencies.
"Real Friends" as they are referred to are those of esteem. A friend, who is still your friend when you've lost your ability to provide status and power to those around you. You lose your fortune, the power relationships end, the esteem relationships remain. You lose your public image, the power relationships end, the esteem relationships remain.
The world of power relationships is unstable. The vicissitudes of style, hipness, and good fortune, put us at the whim of forces outside of our control. There can only be one "it-girl". There can only be one alpha male. There's only one Megan Fox, and only one Robert Pattison. That is, until next week. It is a zero sum game, where every win presupposes that someone else loses.
The world of esteem relationships is unbounded. Choosing to trust, to value, appreciate, to love, is a game of mutual advantage. Every win presupposes that someone else wins. Our esteem, our status, is a function of our ability to create and maintain genuine relationships.
In that old post, I asked this question:
Are Christians susceptible to depression by avoiding status symbols, personal glory and power? Or is there some other route that supplants these losses with something more?
Choosing to eschew power and embrace esteem is the pathway for the Christian away from depression. Love your neighbor as yourself.
There is a dichotomy to status in regards to relationships. One side is power and the other I call esteem. A perfect power relationship would be sociopathic, having no value in the person, only in what the person can do for them. A perfect esteem relationship, would be one of perfect love, where the object is valued without regard to the power the relationship affords. Neither exists for man in a pure form, only in tendencies.
"Real Friends" as they are referred to are those of esteem. A friend, who is still your friend when you've lost your ability to provide status and power to those around you. You lose your fortune, the power relationships end, the esteem relationships remain. You lose your public image, the power relationships end, the esteem relationships remain.
The world of power relationships is unstable. The vicissitudes of style, hipness, and good fortune, put us at the whim of forces outside of our control. There can only be one "it-girl". There can only be one alpha male. There's only one Megan Fox, and only one Robert Pattison. That is, until next week. It is a zero sum game, where every win presupposes that someone else loses.
The world of esteem relationships is unbounded. Choosing to trust, to value, appreciate, to love, is a game of mutual advantage. Every win presupposes that someone else wins. Our esteem, our status, is a function of our ability to create and maintain genuine relationships.
In that old post, I asked this question:
Are Christians susceptible to depression by avoiding status symbols, personal glory and power? Or is there some other route that supplants these losses with something more?
Choosing to eschew power and embrace esteem is the pathway for the Christian away from depression. Love your neighbor as yourself.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Why We Fear Obama and the Left
From Stan Isaacs at the Philadelphia Inquirer today, speaking on Obama:
He should forget bipartisanship and work with congressional Democrats to name three new justices to the court to meet the challenges he faces.
The whole piece is dedicated to justifying Obama naming three new Supreme Court justices, to lift the total to 12. Does this man not smell the brimstone on his own breath? Isaacs even thinks that FDR got a raw deal when public opinion turned against him while trying to pack the court in the 1930's. This is Hugo Chavez style thinking. Checks and balances be damned, we need to pass our agenda.
Why are we afraid of Obama and the Left? Is he a socialist, maybe not. Is he a communist, maybe not. The problem with the Left, though, is that they have no logical barriers between themselves and totalitarianism. Hayek's Road to Serfdom is the logical flow of their beliefs.
He should forget bipartisanship and work with congressional Democrats to name three new justices to the court to meet the challenges he faces.
The whole piece is dedicated to justifying Obama naming three new Supreme Court justices, to lift the total to 12. Does this man not smell the brimstone on his own breath? Isaacs even thinks that FDR got a raw deal when public opinion turned against him while trying to pack the court in the 1930's. This is Hugo Chavez style thinking. Checks and balances be damned, we need to pass our agenda.
Why are we afraid of Obama and the Left? Is he a socialist, maybe not. Is he a communist, maybe not. The problem with the Left, though, is that they have no logical barriers between themselves and totalitarianism. Hayek's Road to Serfdom is the logical flow of their beliefs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)